Scottish independance

Scottish Independence?

On September 14th 2014 Scotland will go to the polls for a yes/no referendum on Independence from the UK. 

As an Englishman I have no right to an opinion on this issue. It is for the people of Scotland to chose who they wish to govern them. This is the nub of the issue. It would be a statement of the bleedin' obvious to mention how different Scotland is to the rest of the UK, culturally, economically, politically.

The Scottish/English relationship has always been a little strained but then if you look back at our shared history there has been a lot of bloodshed. In fact the 500th anniversary of the Battle of Flodden Field took place this year and next year the Battle of Bannockburn celebrates 700 years. 

There is a long history of lawlessness in the border territories of Scotland and England famed as the Reivers. 

So we could be described as historically uneasy neighbours. 

The present union goes back to 1707. It was allegedly created due to a lack of funds in Scotland. The Scottish government had seen a gap in the market. Colonies were all the rage and countries that had them seemed to rake in the cash. So they cashed in all their bonds and sent an armada to America to establish a Scottish colony. Unfortunately, it seems that most of the ships sank before reaching harbour and the deal was lost - taking Scottish fortunes with it. The only way left was to go into partnership with the English. The rest is, as they say, history.

To more modern times and it seems the seeds for this present round of Independence is due to Margaret Thatcher. OK that is not fair but from the 1980's Scotland has returned less and less Conservative MP's. Currently, of the 59 Scottish members of Westminster Parliament, 1 is Conservative. But for 17 years they were encumbered with Conservative Westminster. The people of Scotland were not in control of their destiny. 

It has to be said that the Scottish are not the only ones disenchanted with London politicians but that is for another time.

All this is a preamble. You could find this all out for yourself, as I did on the internet. What you really want is an opinion isn't it?

I have to admit Scottish Independence would make me a little sad but hey that is freedom. I would hope that the Scottish voters make the decision based on rational questioning of the ideals put forward and not a misplaced sense of romanticism for times gone by. 

I believe that the biggest hurdle the SNP have to overcome is that of the economy, persuading the electorate that Scotland can survive as an independent nation in particular. First and foremost is the SNP claim about the oil. I think the Scottish have seen the best of the oil revenues personally. I have heard some experts cast doubt on the claim that oil revenues will remain a major player for the next 40 years. An article on the BBC website here also questions the value that Scotland can expect from future oil revenues. I think that the SNP have played the oil card rather heavily in their attempt to entice the electorate into an independent Scotland. Scots are famously canny with their pennies (cultural stereotype alert!) and may believe Union is a safer bet financially.

If you look to the banking collapse of 2008 there may be some credence to that belief. when the RBS group (based in Edinburgh) went to the wall it would probably have taken the entire Scottish economy with it such was their debt burden. Alex Salmond could not have saved that one. So there is some safety in numbers.

The SNP want to keep the pound. The Treasury will put a stop to that but keeping the pound may be as bad for Scotland as joining the Euro would have been to the UK. In times of financial trouble the Scottish government would find themselves unable to act, as Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Greece have all found. Should the price of oil collapse unexpectedly, oil prices are historically volatile, The Scottish government may find it impossible to act. 

What the errant Euro zone economies would like to have done would have been to devalue their currency and alter interest rates but as it is controlled from a central bank they were up the creek without a paddle.

If Scotland does not have a big enough economy for a stable, self governed currency then maybe Independence is not the way for them

The next contentious issue the English press have picked up on is the SNP insistence that they would rid Scotland of nuclear weapons and leave NATO. Making the UK and the US remove their ballistic submarines may work but leaving NATO when many countries are seeking to join? This, on reflection, may well be used as a negotiating chip by Alex Salmond. Scotland enjoys a dominating prescence in the North Atlantic and I don't think NATO (read the US) would let Scotland opt out with out a word! Maybe the SNP are hoping to extort some value?

So far I have been rather negative about Independence and have come from a softly anti Independence stance. 

It has to be said that before devolution in 1999 Scotland was exasperated politically. It consistently voted down a government only to find the government still in charge thanks to the English. But has devolution satiated the hunger for independence? Polls are inconclusive apparently

I am an anxious person, I worry about stuff. Hence my negative attitude to the SNP's policy. I always see problems where others see opportunity. One thing is clear though, whatever the outcome from this referendum, more devolution for Scotland is essential and desirable. 

Whichever way they vote I wish them the best of luck. It is a great country.

I once asked a Scot where he stood on Independence his answer surprised me a little. I was expecting a for/against type reply. But instead he was ambivalent in general. But his only fear of Independence was that Scotland would cease to look outwards. He felt some of the newly independent European states became overwhelmed with introspective navel gazing. Scotland, he pointed out built so much of the modern world (Steam engines for instance). This extrovert and international approach had built the country and it's reputation in the world. He warned of Scotland turning in on it's self and what a loss that would be.

So which ever way Scotland votes in 2014 - look up and look out! Scotland has so much to offer the world culturally, it would be criminal to keep it all to yourselves!