The Future Europe

The latest round of Euro blundering by David Cameron, which may or may not be a home front ploy, has highlighted the apparent drive towards a federal Europe. That  is federal and not feral!

British politicians on the whole are largely afraid of the invention of such an enormous political state. To be generous one hopes it is based on a fear of the loss of democratic voice to the individuals in their care (me!) and a healthy disrespect for larger and more unwieldy bureaucracies but it may also be about loss of power of their own offices. Like Turkeys voting for Christmas.

The largest problem for a federal Europe is that it is a far more culturally diverse region than other federal countries of similar size. There aren't many USA, China and India. I admit I don't have a good knowledge of the last two but I do have a little experience of the USA.  In the US a lot of shared identity exists  around the federal system. Independence day, Thanksgiving etc. There is some history in fighting (the civil war of the 1850's). In Europe we have a 2000 year history of empire formation, violence towards it's citizens, political and religious persecution. A lot of it is rather recent.

No matter, that is the reason that the European community for coal and steel was set up. To foster better economic and social ties that might prevent us wading into each other with what ever weaponry we had to hand. It was an attempt to prevent a further war in later years. And to that end it has been quite successful thus far. It has even made Europe slow to respond to international events that would have resulted in some form of gunboat diplomacy in the past. Europe has a history of exporting it's violence with some vigour. 

All this has become more difficult during the time of the EU since the 1960's. It is quite possibly one of it's most attractive traits. Instead we have been able to focus on improving our quality of life. 

So I believe the creation of the EU had been largely a positive experience thus far. Going forward however it has some decisions to make. 

A truly federal state will have to be more democratic and accountable than is the current case. There is a democratically elected parliament it is true. But it only debates the issues put forward by the commissioners. The EU commission  is the executive body for the EU but it is not directly elected. Most commissioners seem to be elected by some sort of back room deal between governments. 

To become a truly democratic federal republic this commission will have to change. It was derived from the fact that the EU was a loose federation of governments who all wanted a say. As a result the commission members are the result of horse trading between governments to make sure their interests are being met. I would see the commission as the the cabinet or government of the EU accountable to the parliament. It should be independently elected. 

I haven't thought this through properly yet but I think the Parliament and the commission should be elected on a different cycle. So we would change parliament and commissioners half way through each other's cycle. This would give us 2.5 year to make a democratic change if the electorate were unhappy with policy.  Westminster politics shows us that a government derived from within it's own parliament can have too much policy making power and needs to be offset by a second house not worried about re-election or currying favour. Hence a commission and a parliament, elected separately.

The commission could be elected as a total. So we would vote on commission group as a whole, a first minister and cabinet. I would like to see and independent President to ensure the commission acts in accordance with the law etc but with Parliament having the final say on any legislation.

It is a big step for a country or region to cede power in this way to a larger organisation. The UK would lose some influence as we would be subsumed into a larger  whole. 

There would need to be changes to the way the Euro is controlled. The EU commission would have to have sole financial responsibility but as there is now there would need to be an independent central bank charged with protecting the currency. 

I think that all this would be too much for many countries to withstand. There is at the moment too much variation in governance across Europe. Currently the Greeks, Italians and Spanish may just be thinking that financial policy is designed for the benefit of the Germans. They are the dominant economic force in the EU. It is natural law for economics that the resulting policy is influenced by it's largest contributor. To overnight cede all this economic and social power to a central European state may well be too much too soon.

If a federal Europe is to be truly an end goal there  will have to be much more social and economic integration than is currently the case. I believe we are not at a point where a central European government is a better alternative to what we have right now. 

Is it a goal worth achieving? I have my doubts. I am an anxious person by nature however. It has been proven beyond doubt that the European free trade zone has been an outstanding success. Financially. What we have seen though in the economic disaster zone of 2008 is that the larger the prize the larger the failure. 

This?

What the Euro zone did was to make the areas affected much bigger by preventing sovereign governments  from making financial decisions (devaluation etc) that were once solid propositions. The Euro actually acted as a straight jacket to these countries. I shudder to think what might have happened had the UK been in the Euro from 2008!

So, much work needs to be done and it must not be forced at an unnatural pace by politicians. The last elections displayed a marked shift in feelings toward European federalism. It should be noted by the commission and not be business as usual.

Or this?

What ever the final design of a Federal Europe may take, it will HAVE to take account of regional variations and cultures.  However, to some extent, a new Europe will probably be business as usual. Quite probably the wealthiest nations may be the ones who dislike federalism the most. During the Greek bailout negotiations it was widely reported that there were disgruntled Germans unsure of why they were picking up Greece's tab. That is the new Europe - all for one and one for all!