Cameron's European Debacle

Refugees?

Reading the newspapers this morning (28th June 2014) you might be thinking that David Cameron has spat his dummy out and is going to take the British off the Brussels playground and hide across the channel. The picture is not so clear in my mind however.

I believe this to be posturing from the Prime Minister. The Euro elections have shown the Conservative Party that a large swathe of their "usual suspects" who they can count on to turn out and vote for them have large misgivings with Europe and may well go over to  UKIP. There will be a general election in May 2015 here in the UK and the conservative vote was some what missing in action last time round hence the very unusual event (in the UK at any rate) of a coalition government.

Back in 2010, after the biggest financial meltdown for at least 70 years a seemingly invincible Labour government had all but lost it's credibility. Usually this would result in a landslide for the opposition party but the present alternative in the shape of David Cameron was not wholly seen as a worthy alternative. The result was that there was a hung parliament and the Conservatives had to go into power with the help of the Lib Dems who have not had a whiff of government since World War 1!

The resulting 4 years have not provided any great insight into the leading contenders for government next time round. 

I am pretty much a left of centre Labour supporter but I have to say that Ed Milliband has so far made no great strides at showing he stands for something. I have said before in previous posts that that may be a deliberate ploy. With all the austerity going on best to sit it out. The Government may well make itself un-electable all by itself. Best be thought of  as vacuous rather than speaking and making it clear for all  to see. The only cause for which the Labour party gets any credit is the "cost of living" drive. A significant proportion of this country are finding that work does not guarantee a way out of poverty. As it should.

As for the Lib Dems? Coalition, again, is their only hope. They may well carry the can for any perceived injustice from this government. 

As a result of this euro scepticism and the spectre of UKIP stealing all their voters, David

Voldemort! to Cameron's Potter

Cameron has decided to go all out and fight a battle he cannot win. This serves two purposes. He appears strong to his own party, pluckily standing up to Johnny Federalist, and secondly does not actually rock the boat in any significant way as this Junckers chap got elected almost unanimously (28-2). He looks like a strong and committed British politician at home and in Europe has not affected the outcome in any shape or form and no one is affected. 


As for leaving Europe? Won't happen soon. If Cameron wins a second term as a stand alone Prime minister (please, pleeease don't let all those Eton cronies back in) there may well be a referendum in 2017 on our Euro position but so far a Cameron government would back continuing membership. 

There is also the small matter of the Scottish referendum. Should Scotland vote to go it alone it has not been clearly stated that Scotland would be accepted straight away into the Euro fold. Either way the Scottish desire for Europe may well persuade doubters of the benefits especially if Scotland really have to go it alone for a while. The Scots would be OK in the short term because of oil but for the rump of the UK it may throw non membership into sharp relief.

Lastly after 2015 it is by no means certain that the Conservatives would make it past the wining post. Whilst many in this country have felt they have handled the economy pretty well considering, there may just be enough momentum in the UKIP campaign to take votes away from the Conservatives. UKIP may not get any seats as a result but there may well be Conservative MP's in marginal seats finding their vote has been split and an alternative candidate wins through. We might be looking at another coalition. I really can't see Labour pushing to No. 10. The unions have backed the wrong man in Ed Milliband in my opinion

So there it is. David Cameron has made a futile gesture so as to garner support from a wavering population without actually causing any harm abroad.

Here is a short video describing Conservative party MP selection process!