Election 2015

Not long now. Then the UK will go to the polls in the hope of electing a new government to lead us on the next installment of "Austerity - it's good for you!". I have spouted on many occasions about this issue. Austerity is a hard sell. 

So the jury is out on this government. The only good thing about it is that it did not

HM Government Logo

fall apart as a coalition. Under the UK system of government an election could be called at any time if a Prime minister should so choose. Outside of war time, minority governments (where a dominant party does not hold enough seats in parliament to form an outright majority) tend not to last long. Mainly because the incumbent Prime Minister will just wait for a slight advantage in the popularity stakes and go for another election hoping to increase their vote. This government has stipulated a fixed term government as is the norm in many other countries. It has led to election indifference from the voters in the UK as the media has been pushing the agenda since before Christmas. Let us hope it is not voter indifference that elects the next government.

However it is not clear what it is we will all be voting for. There used to be competing ideologies between Conservative politicians and Labour a real left versus right. Unfortunately it is not quite clear what the opposition are about. They seem to be wishy washy Tories at the moment. All along I have hoped that the Labour party have had a plan but did not or would not divulge it too soon so as not to give their opponents time to adapt. My very real fear is that the Labour party has no plan! 

The word deficit has been applied to the UK economy a lot in the last 5 years. It appears that after all that rhetoric the Conservatives have only succeeded in carrying out the Labour party goal on this matter. In 2010 the Tories promised to clear the budgetary deficit by the end of the parliament (now). In fact they have only halved it to the point where the Labour party said THEY would have put us. Budget deficit is just too random a concept for the majority of this country to care about. So this kind of talk is pointless. 

Let me start with a little history for the reader. Now let us not go too far back, it is all cause and effect and before you know it you have the big bang at year dot.

The current financial status of the UK plc has been brought about because the Labour Government of Gordon Brown had to borrow some eye watering amounts of money to enable many of the UK's financial institutions to continue to trade. These institutions had invested badly. I think that is the easiest thing to say. No it really doesn't cover the crass ineptitude, the greed culture, the complete lack of control, I could go on. These institutions had quite confidently thrown themselves off financial cliffs of Himalayan proportions whilst assuring themselves that they had properly packed the parachute they had left at home that day.

The subsequent financial crash had left UK plc with rather large gap in it's balance sheet. the ground for the 2010 election was all about how to get this gap reduced. 

As I said that was 5 years ago and the electorate as a whole really don't seem to care about matters of national finance. Does the average punter really care about the budget deficit? My answer is no, not a jot. Unless it will affect their bank balance. So they don't really want to hear about it, it is an abstract concept. They care about inflation at the supermarket, on their utility bill and their mortgage (if they are lucky enough to have one). 

Unfortunately, in my view, they also seem to be against immigration. I firmly believe that this is a rather nasty side of UK culture, xenophobia. I do not speak to a lot of people on this subject but I have yet to make the acquaintance of a person who has been directly disadvantaged by an immigrant. I do not know of a person who has lost a job opportunity to an immigrant. My personal belief that there is a large streak of xenophobia in this country and the Anglo Saxon majority seems to have infected some of the ethnic minorities with this attitude too. 

The fact is that immigration in this country fulfills several needs, the closing of the demographic gap as the population ages, and allowing for growth in the economy. 

So what will the battle ground be? Where will the votes be won or lost? I am not yet certain that any party will have an edge. Leading up to most elections of my recollection, so we are back to 1979, there has always been a mood in the country, admittedly as described by the media (from several sources BBC, ITV, and

Jim Callaghan
Labour Prime Minister
1976-1979 

newspapers so not all controlled by Rupert Murdoch). in 1979 the country had by and large had enough of the Labour government. The intervention of the IMF (at HMG's request) meant that the government had to go back on election pledges, the unions were incensed and then committed political Hari Kari by striking so much and so often. This allowed Thatcher and her monetarist followers in to government. Opinion is now divided as to whether that was a good thing. I will leave that argument for another day. 

However the defeat of 1979 actually pushed the Labour party further to the left in political speak. The UK is a naturally conservative nation and radicalism of any sort is rarely tolerated unless it is used against foreigners. So Thatch ruled the 80's largely untroubled by other political parties. We could of had a Labour government in 1992.

Thatch

The UK just wanted a change. But Labour snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by hosting a victory party 2 days BEFORE a vote was cast. And so the UK reelected a dodgy Conservative government (this time without Thatch who they ditched 2 years earlier) just to put 2 fingers up to any politician who dared to presume. By the time 1997 came along the ruling Conservatives had become visibly arrogant, corrupt and morally hypocritical. Tony Blair swept to power, not so much because everyone voted for him but mostly because no one could bring themselves to vote Conservative anymore. The Conservative party was swept in to a glorious wasteland of pointlessness (Bet you can't detect my bias!) until 2010 and even then the nation couldn't stomach a whole Conservative government.

I would like to think that the populace may not have made their minds up yet. However I think it is more a case of whether they will bother. I would hazard a guess that 75% of the UK already has a political party in mind to vote for. To be honest I have to include myself, I am a Labour supporter. The question is will these people turn out in sufficient numbers to make a difference. 

My personal hope was that UKIP would split the Conservative vote allowing more Liberals and Labour seats in key marginal territories leading to a Labour led government. However it seems that the Scottish National Party are going to take a large proportion of Labour votes in Scotland which was once a key Labour stronghold. The balance therefore swings right back to the Conservatives. For my money the Liberals are going to take a bit of a hiding. They traditionally hold a large proportion of the swaying voters and those voters will ask themselves if they vote liberal will they still end up with a Conservative government and so vote Conservative anyway, or not at all.

The real nightmare scenario is that this is a low turnout election. And that is a real possibility. Politicians have held a poor public image for as long as I can remember but it has got to the point where they are visibly seen to be a people apart. 

A large turnout for alternative parties (other than UKIP and the BNP) might serve as a kick up the eighties for these political types. Politics needs to re engage the populace. To be seen to care about them or for them. 

Once upon a time in the UK the power was held in the London but the wealth in the industrial regions. Now both resides in the South east of England. Voters of the UK beware!