The Future Beckons....

It is fair to say that I am a glass half empty sort of person. Thus it is my duty to confer on the world at large my scenario for the next 5 years: 

• The UK as we know it is finished
• We will leave the EU 
• We will enter an emergency trade pact with Russia 
• Sell Trident to the North Koreans in return for the useful advice on the rescinding of human rights.

OK so the last 2 are not likely (note I do not say impossible!). 

So let us take a look at the first point. Mark my words, separation from the UK will  be an election issue for the SNP at the next general election. Alan Johnson writing in the Guardian sums up what I said (mostly - I didn't see the Question Time debate - oops!) in my last post as to why Labour failed. Of his points It would seem that, even so long after the winter of discontent (an event used by the Conservatives to help retain bower for 18 years), that that sort of "Labour will do it again" fear still works. Never let the facts get in the way of a good story. 
The problem is that now Scotland has set out it's stall. It wants what is best for Scotland - screw the rest of you. That is a bit strong I admit but if they had had any care for the rest of the country they would not have decapitated the only political party likely to rid them of a Conservative government. They have indirectly elected the one Westminster government they didn't want. Scotland has little care as it will have a much more powerful Scottish assembly so there is limited damage to them. The wedge between Scotland and the rest of the country has been driven deeper. From now on any unpopular Westminster decisions (to Scotland) and a feeling in England that they are paying for Scotland's liberal economy, will only serve to distance us (England and Wales) from them. Thus next General Election full separation will be on the agenda. 

I may have got the order wrong. If the UK leaves the EU, Scotland will be falling over itself to get back in and then that would mean the end of the UK. 

I don't know that the cleaving of the UK will necessarily be a bad thing. I have always felt that the notion of Scottish Independence was a romantic notion as in Brigadoon romantic!

Everyday folk in Scottish imagination

They are culturally distinct for sure but the plans of the SNP to plug the gaps in Scottish life with the aid of oil appear doomed to failure. Firstly it is not clear how much revenue is left in the North Sea and secondly the current price is too low for their plans. 

This current government have promised a renegotiation of the EU treaty followed by an in/out referendum. Now the problem I have with leaving the EU are legion. But mostly the notion that we don't need to be in it to trade with it is short sighted. All that would be achieved is the inability to change any of the regulations. We would still be bound by them because to in order to trade our business would still have to comply with EU law and we would remove any mechanism to influence change. It just doesn't make any sense. As for any other trade agreements with the rest of the world? We could still be a covered by GATT. However we would be a much smaller partner than before and may not find as many sympathetic ears when we get trampled on by a larger economy. It just doesn't make any sense. But then we elected David Cameron for a second time so who knows what an referendum might do.

We might end up having to get into bed, economically with strange bedfellows in order to  make our economy work. Hence the trade agreement with Russia.