Ukraine Crisis

The Ukraine

The irony that the font for this post is called "Georgia" is not lost on me. The country of the same name has also been the unwelcome recipient of Russian attention in the recent past.

We, in the western hemisphere at any rate, are well aware of the current humanitarian crisis taking place in the Ukraine. The responsibility of which rests completely on the shoulders of the Russian leadership, without whose decision to send in the troops, would not be occurring. 

I have found it helpful over the course of the last few weeks to try and read a bit behind the headlines about the history shared by the Ukraine and Russia.

This article from the Guardian Newspaper (UK) is very informative and also quite interesting.

So the west's response has so far been to sit back and watch. Well I know there have been sanctions but don't panic they wont hurt the Kremlin one jot. No, ordinary rank and file Russians will bear the brunt. The Russian hierarchy are traditionally well insulated from ordinary Russian life. Your average Russian may well be very confused and angry about this. They certainly will not have the benefit of 20/20 vision over this, such is the control that is exerted over Russian news media.

Before we all get too arrogant about news media, try to remember that the likes  Rupert Murdoch exert colossal influence on the news media we consume. Never mind Facebook and Twitter. We do have laws protecting free speech but The Sun prints whatever shite it likes as the law is retrospective and they can print tiny retractions at a later date

It is entirely possible that, even with independent news media, rank and file Russians would reach the same conclusion as that provided by their government. I am not  sure we will ever really know

What is of concern to me is that when Autocrats like the Russians embark on such misadventures I have little understanding of their limits, What prevents them from doing whatever the the hell they want. 

Well lets take the Iraq invasion. Ok I am not going to delve into this in much detail. I just don't have time, and I am not comparing the two as in any way similar events except it is the last example of a democratic superpower invading sovereign territory.

At least with a democratic country you have some sense that at some stage the incumbent executive will have to answer to their electorate or worse still, public opinion. I believe that, to a greater or lesser extent, a democratic beligerant country will only be able to go so far. It has to gauge how much it thinks public opinion will take. 

I think the phrase is "wait until the body bags start coming home" 

The Kremlin has no such need to court public opinion if it does not choose. This makes it a more dangerous entity. 

This is probably why the US (in its NATO guise - the US is by far the biggest constituent after all) has not stepped in officially. There is just no telling where the Kremlin will take it next. Well there is, there are no limits.

The Kremlin is a power hungry monster that has not come to terms with the fact that nearly all their Cold War "allies" couldn't wait to see the back of them at the end of the 20th century and gleefully stuck 2 fingers up to Moscow and ran into the embrace of the EU and NATO.

It needn't be this way. Indeed some of  the blame for this lays at our own door. It could of been possible to have eased Russia into the modern world. Russia is a geographically big nation with large natural resources. Its place in the world is assured. I just wish it's world view were not so stuck in the past.