Perhaps We in Europe should view the last 80 years as evidence that US governments despised communism more than they cared for democracy. Abroad that is. So now communists don't exist (maybe) The US does not see the need to act as defender of last resort to western democracy in Europe. Since it only wanted to halt the march of communism rather than defend the right of Europeans to self determination and freedom of expression etc etc.
Has Trump just sold Europe down the river? Putin has written of his preference to re absorb the Baltic States. Does this mean that reaching for the Baltic is in the Kremlin mission plan? Maybe. Putin has released an essay talking of the illegitimate nature of sovereign states in the recent past. I cannot find websites to pieces about this however. There are significant Russian speaking communities in these states and it is thought the Kremlin can use their defence as an excuse to invade.
So where are we.
Well lets take a look in from a different perspective
Russia is largely advancing in on Ukraine. But at a cost. Throwing Russian people under the bus in the name of strategic victory is a concept well known in Russia. From Napoleon to Hitler the Kremlin has been more than willing to barricade Russian territory with the bodies of it's citizens. But something is beginning to give at the Kremlin. Perhaps it is the economic sanctions, perhaps it is the loss of life, perhaps both. However Russia is not so close to its knees that it will come cap in hand to the European powers asking for peace. I think it does want some form of peace because the "special operation" is dragging and enjoying mission creep.
My belief is that, no matter what the belligerence of the Ukraine government is, this war is taking an enormous toll on everything Ukrainian. Population, infrastructure you name it.
Whilst I support propping up the Kyiv government any sane human being must be asking themselves just what is it we are asking them to do? Europe and US are providing arms to help defend Kyiv but we must ask ourselves if that support is not part of the problem. I am not a Putin appeaser but Ukraine is by far taking the biggest brunt of this war and just maybe stopping the fighting whilst there is still some Ukraine left is no bad thing.
And Russia knows this. So it is still largely in a position of power.
Trump has at least got the Russians to the negotiating table. An opinion of this is that Trump has offered Putin an off ramp, one which he is prepared to accept. It does not require him to about face or apologise. It saves face.
Let us hope this was Trumps plan all along. The ties with Europe are actually too strong so we can take it and still remain long term friends. Let us hope that Trump knows what he is doing and that what Russia ends up signing for is a lot less than they bargained for.
But at least they are talking.
The Trump administrations public demand for a deal on Ukrainian mineral wealth is, quite frankly despicable. We will negotiate for you and about you but only if you hand over the family jewels.
Time will tell
No comments:
Post a Comment