The Issues
The Economy
As ever the economy is going to be front and centre with 2 of the main parties committing to not only reducing the financial deficit but eliminating it in 2-3 years.
The NHS could prove to be Labour's only trump card!
So let us look a little deeper at these two, firstly the economy. In my opinion this is only a winner as a policy in extreme times. When the going is good and when it is bad. Take 2010. The western world was in a financial crisis with many of it's banks in meltdown etc etc. The choice was all about how we dealt with this problem going forward. The electorate, it seemed, at the time did not really believe any one party had the answer. So we have had a hung parliament.
Historically in the UK these parliaments do not last the full term. There are too many opportunities in the parliamentary system to trip up a minority government and force an election. Sometimes the larger group just waits for public opinion to shift a Little and then try again. So it is to the credit of the parties that they have managed to live together for 5 years. However the world has moved on and by all accounts the the economy is on the up. So is austerity going to be on the menu this time around? Well of course it is. The deficit the government runs is still too high for many financial guru's. So an incumbent government will need to keep going on the austerity. But as the Greeks have shown, austerity is a hard sell. In my opinion it would difficult to get elected this time around if austerity is your main policy. The losers in austerity are always the low paid and the disadvantaged.
The challenge for my money is trying to balance the need for us to feel a little bit better than we did (and to prevent the rich running away with the economy) with the need for the government to appear fiscally responsible to the financial markets. I could have a separate argument about the need for wealthy people in any economy but I get irritated by a Prime Minister declaring "Dignity through work" in best Orwellian tradition, when the evidence of this country is that the very people this is aimed at (the unemployed and on benefits) are often not even paid a living wage. Tied in with the fact that many of the richest people in this country have got there through the labour of these very people and we have all the elements for political ferment.
The NHS
A subject close to my heart. I am an NHS employee of nearly 30 years. To an outsider to the UK the NHS might seem either an expensive luxury or a organisational nightmare. A government carbuncle of spending of epic proportions. To many in the UK, in fact I would go as far as to say that most of the UK rely on the NHS. For those who are not aware of it`s origins it started life in 1948. A post WWII government believed that this country should be able to offer it's citizens a the right to free health care because it deserved it. The political ground had shifted after the early 20th Century and governments could no longer rely on the public sense of duty to maintain the country. Government had to offer them an advantage. Taxation would pay for this service. And so it was conceived, it has now become a fixed point of life in this country.
A good vote winner for any party is the one that can persuade the electorate they know what is best for the service.
The trouble with the NHS is that it is a political football. This is unavoidable as a publicly funded body. My issue is that it political opinion chops and changes too much. The NHS suffers too much reorganisation too often. I think there needs to be a public debate on the future of the NHS but it is too big a question to be mixed up in a general election with all the other issues that need to be dealt with.
In the short term I would like the next government to recognise that because care needs to given by people they should not sell the workers short. I have effectively endured a five year pay freeze that I am not sure I could live with for another five years. And I am a better paid worker.
There is no way around it the NHS uses up phenomenal amounts of money. if the next government is as tight fisted and mean spirited with it's funding I believe it will have a high profile dispute on it's hands within a short space of time.
Immigration
This is a topic that vexes me somewhat. If ever there was a subject in modern politics that was dominated by ignorance, intolerance and xenophobia then it is right here. Here is a fact. Immigrants to this country contribute more in taxation than they take in benefits. And this from the Daily Telegraph! We have an ageing population and have had for at least 30 years. They used to call it the demographic time bomb. Immigration is an answer to this problem. Also we should have more babies. There is an argument that some of these immigrants act to keep wages low. The concept is that due to a favourable exchange rate, what money an immigrant may save will go a long way in their home country. Where as a similar UK worker is still left with peanuts. In my opinion this is why we have to set the minimum wage at a level that makes financial sense to the recipient. Financial experts would say this would make us uncompetitive in a world market but it is too late. The far east took that from us 40-50 years ago. It is already a fact of life. We have to recognise what it costs to have a life of work in this country and educate people well enough that they then may be able to have a work life worthy of the name.
Any other argument on immigration is based on xenophobia and I will not dignify it with an argument.
Conclusion
So that is my prediction for the main hunting ground for politicians in this election. With time to go it is possible for new topics to raise their heads. A major calamity may raise it's head (as a for instance 1982 and the Falklands conflict). But in general I believe this to be the crux of any campaign
As ever the economy is going to be front and centre with 2 of the main parties committing to not only reducing the financial deficit but eliminating it in 2-3 years.
The NHS could prove to be Labour's only trump card!
So let us look a little deeper at these two, firstly the economy. In my opinion this is only a winner as a policy in extreme times. When the going is good and when it is bad. Take 2010. The western world was in a financial crisis with many of it's banks in meltdown etc etc. The choice was all about how we dealt with this problem going forward. The electorate, it seemed, at the time did not really believe any one party had the answer. So we have had a hung parliament.
Historically in the UK these parliaments do not last the full term. There are too many opportunities in the parliamentary system to trip up a minority government and force an election. Sometimes the larger group just waits for public opinion to shift a Little and then try again. So it is to the credit of the parties that they have managed to live together for 5 years. However the world has moved on and by all accounts the the economy is on the up. So is austerity going to be on the menu this time around? Well of course it is. The deficit the government runs is still too high for many financial guru's. So an incumbent government will need to keep going on the austerity. But as the Greeks have shown, austerity is a hard sell. In my opinion it would difficult to get elected this time around if austerity is your main policy. The losers in austerity are always the low paid and the disadvantaged.
The challenge for my money is trying to balance the need for us to feel a little bit better than we did (and to prevent the rich running away with the economy) with the need for the government to appear fiscally responsible to the financial markets. I could have a separate argument about the need for wealthy people in any economy but I get irritated by a Prime Minister declaring "Dignity through work" in best Orwellian tradition, when the evidence of this country is that the very people this is aimed at (the unemployed and on benefits) are often not even paid a living wage. Tied in with the fact that many of the richest people in this country have got there through the labour of these very people and we have all the elements for political ferment.
The NHS
A subject close to my heart. I am an NHS employee of nearly 30 years. To an outsider to the UK the NHS might seem either an expensive luxury or a organisational nightmare. A government carbuncle of spending of epic proportions. To many in the UK, in fact I would go as far as to say that most of the UK rely on the NHS. For those who are not aware of it`s origins it started life in 1948. A post WWII government believed that this country should be able to offer it's citizens a the right to free health care because it deserved it. The political ground had shifted after the early 20th Century and governments could no longer rely on the public sense of duty to maintain the country. Government had to offer them an advantage. Taxation would pay for this service. And so it was conceived, it has now become a fixed point of life in this country.
A good vote winner for any party is the one that can persuade the electorate they know what is best for the service.
The trouble with the NHS is that it is a political football. This is unavoidable as a publicly funded body. My issue is that it political opinion chops and changes too much. The NHS suffers too much reorganisation too often. I think there needs to be a public debate on the future of the NHS but it is too big a question to be mixed up in a general election with all the other issues that need to be dealt with.
In the short term I would like the next government to recognise that because care needs to given by people they should not sell the workers short. I have effectively endured a five year pay freeze that I am not sure I could live with for another five years. And I am a better paid worker.
There is no way around it the NHS uses up phenomenal amounts of money. if the next government is as tight fisted and mean spirited with it's funding I believe it will have a high profile dispute on it's hands within a short space of time.
Immigration
This is a topic that vexes me somewhat. If ever there was a subject in modern politics that was dominated by ignorance, intolerance and xenophobia then it is right here. Here is a fact. Immigrants to this country contribute more in taxation than they take in benefits. And this from the Daily Telegraph! We have an ageing population and have had for at least 30 years. They used to call it the demographic time bomb. Immigration is an answer to this problem. Also we should have more babies. There is an argument that some of these immigrants act to keep wages low. The concept is that due to a favourable exchange rate, what money an immigrant may save will go a long way in their home country. Where as a similar UK worker is still left with peanuts. In my opinion this is why we have to set the minimum wage at a level that makes financial sense to the recipient. Financial experts would say this would make us uncompetitive in a world market but it is too late. The far east took that from us 40-50 years ago. It is already a fact of life. We have to recognise what it costs to have a life of work in this country and educate people well enough that they then may be able to have a work life worthy of the name.
Any other argument on immigration is based on xenophobia and I will not dignify it with an argument.
Conclusion
So that is my prediction for the main hunting ground for politicians in this election. With time to go it is possible for new topics to raise their heads. A major calamity may raise it's head (as a for instance 1982 and the Falklands conflict). But in general I believe this to be the crux of any campaign
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